The Strategic and Security Landscape of Maldives: Implications for India

A Threat Perception Analysis

Terrorist Footprints in Maldives

On May 6, 2021, individuals labeled as Islamic extremists attempted to assassinate Speaker of Parliament Mohamed Nasheed by detonating an IED in the capital city of Malé, seriously wounding Nasheed and injuring five others. Nine men, described as supporters of ISIS by the government, were charged under the Anti-Terrorism Act (ATA) in relation to the attack. One of them, Adhuham Ahmed Rasheed, entered into a plea bargain and was sentenced to 23 years’ imprisonment in December 2021.

The trial of Mohamed Ameen, the first Maldivian to be listed as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist by the U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Affairs Control (OFAC), began in November 2021. OFAC stated that Ameen provided financial, material, or technological support for ISIS-K, including through his activities as an ISIS-K recruiter. Ameen had been arrested in October 2019 and charged with joining a terrorist organization and planning terror acts under the ATA.

Terrorism in Maldives, while less frequent, targets the democratic government and tourists. The trend began with the 2007 Male Sultan Square Attack on September 29, 2007, injuring 12 tourists. On April 15, 2020, five speedboats were destroyed in an arson attack in Mahibadhoo Harbour, claimed by the Islamic State. On May 6, 2021, Mohamed Nasheed was severely injured by an IED explosion outside his residence in Malé, in a significant IS-inspired attack. Others, including his bodyguards and onlookers, were also injured.

ISIS and Al-Qaeda have influenced the Maldivian youth to join as foreign fighters. Al-Qaeda established a branch in 2009, but post-2014 ISIS caliphate declaration led to a split. Maduvvari Island emerged as an ISIS hub, with infamous operator Mohammad Ameen recruiting Maldivians for jihad in Syria and Iraq.

The presence of these groups is further evidenced by the publication of jihadist propaganda like the Voice of Hind, which praised attacks in Maldives against tourists. The connection of these groups with Indian-centric issues raises major concerns for India. Although no ISIS bases are established in Maldives, recruiters involved in gang violence bridge criminal gangs and terrorist groups. The Addu City Cell is the ISIS cell responsible for carrying out terrorist attacks.

Geography and Geostrategic Importance of Maldives

Maldives, an island country in the Indian Ocean, consists of approximately 1,190 coral islands grouped in a double chain of 26 atolls. The islands are geographically dispersed, with significant strategic importance due to their location straddling a 960-km-long submarine ridge in the Indian Ocean.

This location makes Maldives a critical toll gate in the Indian Ocean, vital for maritime trade flow between the Gulf of Aden and Gulf of Hormuz and the Strait of Malacca.

Maldives' location is crucial for India's trade and energy imports, with nearly 50% of India's external trade and 80% of energy imports transiting these sea lanes. The increasing maritime activity in the Indian Ocean has intensified geopolitical competition, with China's strategic interests prompting increased presence in the region.

Maldives’ exclusive economic zone (EEZ) spans over 923,322 km², making it the 31st largest EEZ in the world. This vast marine area, coupled with its location along major sea lanes, underscores its strategic significance.

Irritants in Relations

Political instability in Maldives has been a major concern for India. The February 2015 arrest of opposition leader Mohamed Nasheed on terrorism charges and the consequent political crisis tested India’s neighborhood policy. The rise of Islamist radicalism, fueled by political instability and socio-economic uncertainty, has led to an increase in Maldivians joining terrorist groups like IS and Pakistan-based jihadist groups.

China's strategic footprint in Maldives has increased, with the Maldives becoming a key 'pearl' in China's "String of Pearls" construct.

China's potential strategic bases in Maldives raise concerns for India. Maldives has used the China card to bargain with India, affecting India's strategic interests.

Chinese Diplomatic Engagement

China has increased its strategic footprint in Maldives, with the Maldives becoming a partner in China’s Maritime Silk Route. Chinese investments in infrastructure, such as the China-Maldives Friendship Bridge, airport development, and resort development, have expanded China's influence. Despite reassurances, the concern of Chinese bases in Maldives remains genuine. The anti-India sentiment, fueled by narratives like the "India Out Campaign," complicates India's position.

During Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to Maldives on September 14, 2014, several agreements were signed to enhance economic cooperation. These included infrastructure projects and partnerships under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). China has provided grants and loans for projects like the Sinamalé Bridge and various resort developments, further embedding its presence in the country.

China’s increasing influence has made it easier for Maldives to play the China card against India, leveraging economic and strategic support from Beijing to counterbalance India’s influence. This has led to mixed responses from the Maldivian government regarding Indian involvement in the region.

Emerging Threat Scenario

Maldives has all the ingredients to become an Islamic terror-crime black hole, with extremely corrupt politicians, weak law and order, a radicalized population, and a criminal conglomerate. The proximity of Maldives to Somalia and Yemen, known for attacking shipping lanes, represents a significant threat to India's trade routes. The numerous inhabited islands can serve as vantage points for launching attacks against Indian vessels.

India must diplomatically engage with Muizzu to ensure he does not work against Indian interests. Economically, India could increase aid to counter China’s influence and place sanctions against violent extremist elements. Indian presence in terms of security and troop deployment is necessary to address the growing terrorism and extremism in the region.

India must diplomatically engage with Muizzu to secure its presence and interests in Maldives. Increasing economic aid and strategically deploying troops to assist Maldivian forces are necessary measures. Raising awareness about the dark side of Maldives' tourism industry and implementing strict visa restrictions are also crucial. India must address the threat of radicalization and maintain a strong presence to counter emerging threats from Maldives.

India should also focus on strengthening maritime security in the Indian Ocean, enhancing naval capabilities, and fostering regional cooperation with other Indian Ocean Rim countries to ensure the safety of its trade routes and economic interests. Cooperation with international organizations and leveraging diplomatic channels to address the rise of extremism in Maldives is essential.

By balancing strategic engagement with economic support and security cooperation, India can mitigate the risks posed by the evolving geopolitical landscape in Maldives and safeguard its national security interests.